In Part 1 we discussed organizing your prep lists. In Part 2 we discussed how to set goals using the SMART method. Now lets consider some specific areas you might want to set goals for, or to revisit if your situation has changed. So what are you prepping for anyway? Have the threats you prepped for last year changed?Are new threats being considered? Do your preps reflect your perception of the current threats? Lets discuss threat analysis.
The world is a rapidly changing place. New threats or potential threats raise their heads overnight, and occasionally, you will find that a threat you prepared for may not be as significant as it was last year. Or that new threats have emerged that are more important. When you first began prepping, it was because you were concerned about surviving specific events. Threats can be either natural (earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes) or man-made (crime, war, economic collapse, terrorist acts, or man-made disasters such as nuclear plant meltdown). Threat analysis needs to be ongoing.
So what factors do you consider in analyzing potential threats. Location is one of the primary ones. Do you live in hurricane, tornado, brush fire or earthquake areas? Do you live near a nuclear power plant (like I do). Do you live in a high crime prone urban area or a relatively peaceful country setting? Make a list of the natural disasters you may face and then how often they have historically happened where you live. How concerned are you about financial collapse and the ensuing financial chaos? Do you think major war is a serious consideration? If so, do you live near a military installation that could be a target?
Do an honest analysis and don’t get carried away with other people’s paranoia. Make your own decisions. As a security professional I do threat analysis for clients and organizations. Threats need to be measured by their probability, severity, and impact on you and your family. Thermonuclear war may be a serious threat but how more probable is a hurricane in you area? The chart below gives you a concept on how to organize the threats that you feel you and your family face and how to organize them. Plan your preps accordingly. Prioritize them according to the severity of the impact on you and your family. Your preps should be prioritized to handle the most probable threats whose impact is severe.
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Azweaponcraftprepper 
My preps consist of storing THINGS mainly, with some practical training thrown in, keeping in shape (not a fanatic), and reading a lot (knowledge is power).
I started with the Ten Categories of Military Supply as a guideline for gathering THINGS. Food, water PURIFICATION (you can never store enough water), medical supplies, portable solar power, seeds, tools, Faraday Cages for EMP protection, radiation monitoring equipment, weapons, ammo… all the usual stuff. A LIBRARY is key. You can never know everything, so a reference library of military manuals, medical manuals, agriculture, “how to”, so much more.
I don’t go nuts on weapons, although I am a proponent of 40cal in handguns, 12 ga in shotguns and 308 in rifles. I don’t believe in all this overkill accuracy skill stuff. The few firefights I was in, I found that if you just aimed center mass, but ended up hitting them in something like the hand, they went away. Mission abort is as good as catastrophic kill, as our tanker brothers say. But the best defense is to be about 20 miles from the nearest paved road, so have a place to go and a plan.
Communications is essential. Handheld radios like cops use will do the job if SHTF.
Download a free copy of the Army Survival manual, Ranger Medical Manual, and such. Read a lot.
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Sounds like you have a logical plan. Many people don’t, and just run around buying things in response to any news article they rad or a prepper article they read.
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No argument from me and anything that helps a new prepper work out priorities is a useful tool.
It’s just the world is rather like me “unpredictable” so to me set piece planning is rather like an op-plan, only valid until the first gun goes off.
So I plan . . . well actually I don’t plan beyond the basics.
Is that good when dealing with every scenario?
Probably not, yet I’m now flexible and mobile (legs permitting).
Less fortress mentality, more foraging / scavenging/ and guerrilla tactics orientated. Adaptable
Will it ultimately work? ask me a week or so after TEOTWAWKI.
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Nice chart, bit deep for me.
I have tried that before yet local and world events kept me re-evaluating the risk. Thus it was impossible to work out which had priority.
I even had an Excel sheet that I could change the risk values and print out a current priority list. How geeky is that !?!
In the end I gave up thinking about every problem I could, tore up my play book, and changed to a more “generalized” approach with gear and SOP’s that could be molded to suit most common situations. An adapt, improvise, thus overcome approach.
That saved me a pile of money (and time) regarding equipment and supplies and a shift from the traditional “fortress mentality” prepping to a more flexible forage/scavenge/ survivalist MO.
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I agree that the chart approach may be a bit deep for some, and often leads to being too dogmatic and inflexible. I just want people to seriously consider what is really a threat to them and to plan accordingly instead of just running willy-nilly prepping for every bad news article they read.
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